Forecasting Home Improvement Growth: What Pros Need to Know for the Rest of 2025
By now, you’ve probably heard it from clients, suppliers, and maybe even your accountant—2025 has been weird.High interest rates. Wild swings in material costs. An unpredictable housing market. And yet…homeowners - especially those in Northern California - are still interested in home improvement.
Why? Because even with economic uncertainty looming, homeowners are still spending (cautiously, but consistently) on their homes.
So what’s next for the rest of 2025? Should you ramp up? Scale back? Hire more crews? Raise prices?
Let’s take a look at what the data (and your gut instincts) are telling us.
📊 The Forecast: Slow and Steady Growth
According to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (via its quarterly LIRA report), remodeling and home maintenance spending is expected to grow 3.1% into early 2026, with more moderate gains than we've seen in the post-COVID boom years (Harvard JCHS, 2025).
That might not sound flashy, but in a time when other industries are contracting? That’s solid. It’s growth that rewards smart, well-positioned businesses.
What’s Driving This?
Let’s face it - people are stuck in their homes. Not physically or emotionally…financially.
With mortgage rates still hovering at 7%+, many homeowners are choosing to renovate instead of relocate. Add in aging homes, remote/hybrid work life, and a craving for comfort, and it’s no wonder people are investing in everything from kitchen makeovers to outdoor living upgrades.
And because other spending is down for many households? That money’s going right into new patios, bathroom refreshes, and smart home systems. (“Staycation, but make it stylish.”)
Risks on the Radar
Of course, it’s not all smooth sailing. If you’ve been scrambling to find quality subs or watching your material costs spike like a rollercoaster, you’re not alone!
Here are a few challenges to watch for:
Labor shortages: Still very real, especially for skilled trades (NAHB, 2025).
Material price volatility: Lumber, roofing, HVAC, and even basic electrical components have all been impacted by supply chain issues and tariffs.
Homeowner caution: Some clients are hesitating on bigger projects due to inflation fatigue.
What Smart Pros Are Doing Right Now
There is a bright side! Here’s what we’re seeing from the most successful contractors and home improvement pros:
Doubling down on visibility: Homeowners are spending more time researching and comparing online - but they’re still drawn to the trust and familiarity of print (especially something sitting on their kitchen counter all month long 👀).
Focusing on high ROI projects: Things like energy-efficient upgrades (solar, insulation, HVAC), kitchen & bath remodels, and outdoor living remain the sweet spot for ROI.
Streamlining communication: Delays happen, but pros who proactively communicate timelines, material updates, and pricing earn more long term loyalty. One of the biggest customer complaints in home renovation is lack of communication, so just by keeping in touch with your clients, you’relikely ahead of the competition.
Staying top of mind: Even if a client isn’t ready today, the pros who show up in print, digital, and email stay on their radar and get the call first when the budget opens up.
Why Staying Present Still Matters
In times of uncertainty, consistency builds trust. We’ve seen it across all markets: the businesses that maintain their presence - even when things get “weird” - nearly always tend to win long term.
When a homeowner flips through their mail and sees your ad month after month, it sends a message:
You’re established. You’re busy. You’re reliable. You’re not going anywhere.
Pair that with THM Media’s digital solutions - from targeted email campaigns to our AI-powered Marketplace listings backed by a $5,000 Certified Pro guarantee, and you're not just “advertising.” You're building omnipresence.
Final Word for 2025
2025 isn’t necessarily about wild growth. It’s about smart positioning, steady momentum, and being ready when your ideal clients are.
Whether you're closing leads now or planting seeds for the next month or season, it’s the perfect time to stay active, stay visible, and stay connected.
Want to make sure your business stays top of mind as homeowners plan their next projects?
We’d love to help you blend proven print results with targeted digital tools. Reach out to us at NorCalMarketing@TheHomeMag.com, call (866) 934-6115, or request a media kit.
